People ask me all the time, “John, what are you seeing out there?” It’s a fair question. Every month I sit across the table from the 40+ members of my TAB Jersey Shore North community, business owners in Monmouth, Ocean and southern Middlesex Counties. They run spas, restaurants, trade businesses, agencies, nonprofits and professional firms. Different industries, but they talk to me about the same things. So starting this quarter, I’m going to share what I’m hearing. No names, no secrets, just the honest view from the boardroom. Here’s where things stand heading into the end of the year.

1. The mood is cautious optimism

None of the business owners I work with, my members, are doing badly. But most aren’t killing it either. On average, gross revenue and net profit are flat or growing somewhere between 3 and 10 percent. That’s not a boom and it’s not a bust. It’s steady. But with inflation, there are concerns about passing on the increased costs to their customers so this is eating into profits.  These business leaders aren’t panicking, but they aren’t betting the farm either. They’re watching cash, monitoring costs and making decisions more carefully than they did a couple of years ago. Honestly, I think that’s healthy. Cautious and steady always beats reckless and lucky.

2. Deals are there, but they’re taking longer to close

This is the one I’d pay attention to. There’s a lot of proposal and estimate activity. Customers are asking for quotes and the phone is ringing. But for the last three, four to five months, the time it takes for those proposals to close has been getting longer. The reasons won’t surprise you: inflation, tariffs, the war and the election. Buyers aren’t saying no. They’re just saying not yet. What I tell my members is simple. Don’t panic and don’t start discounting to force a decision. Follow up, stay in front of people and keep more in your pipeline than you think you need. If deals take 30 percent longer to close, you need 30 percent more of them in play to hit the same number.

3. AI has moved from writing to running the business

Almost every one of my members is using AI now. A year ago it was mostly for writing emails, proposals and social posts. Today they’re using it to automate parts of the business and get more efficient: scheduling, estimating, reporting, customer follow-up. That’s a real shift. My marketing agency owners are on quite a ride with this. First it was, “AI is going to make agencies obsolete.” Then they figured out what clients actually pay for, which is people and strategy. So they’re not closing up shop. They’re rebuilding their agencies for this new world, and the ones doing it well are coming out stronger.

4. Gen Z is forcing owners to rethink how they lead

The biggest people challenge I’m seeing is Gen Z. Keeping younger employees engaged is hard, and my members are more focused on company culture and values than I’ve ever seen. A lot of them have come to a tough realization. The way they came up in business, where you kept your head down, paid your dues and stayed put for a good chunk of time, isn’t how it works anymore. If you want Gen Z on your team, you have to change that mindset. A few owners are really struggling with this. They don’t believe Gen Z employees, in general, are loyal, so they’re hesitant to invest in training people who might not stick around. I get it. But here’s the catch. Skip the training and you almost guarantee they leave. Invest in them and you at least give yourself a shot. Remember, whether you like it or not, Zers are going to be an essential part of your workforce.

5. If you need a skilled tradesperson, good luck

If your business depends on plumbers, electricians, HVAC techs or any kind of skilled technician, the pickings have been slim (although there may be some daylight here). My trade members are trying to hire, and most of them can’t find the people, never mind good people. So they’re getting by with the team they have. That means tighter scheduling, better systems and squeezing more efficiency out of every truck and every crew. It also means taking care of the good people you already have, because someone down the road would love to hire them.

The bottom line

The owners I work with aren’t in trouble, and they aren’t coasting. They’re cautious, steady and rethinking how they run things, from how they sell to how they use technology to how they lead a younger workforce. That’s exactly the kind of moment when a sounding board pays for itself. You don’t have to figure out a slower pipeline or a Gen Z hire on your own. Eight to ten owners who are dealing with the same thing can help.

So the months ahead will be challenging. They always are for business leaders, even when everything is pointing in your favor. But by surrounding yourself with thoughtful insight and the right support, you put yourself in the best position to make sound decisions, stay focused, and keep moving forward.

I’ll be back next quarter with another update. In the meantime, I’d like to hear what you’re seeing in your own business. If you run a company between $1 million and $50 million in Monmouth, Ocean or southern Middlesex County, email me at [email protected] or message me at tabjerseyshorenorth.com. Worst case, you get a good cup of coffee and an honest conversation.